Monday, February 8, 2010

Gaming War

Three universities did “War games” over the Iran Nuke issue and Iran won all three.

The games provide several insights into why the Iranian nuclear problem is so intractable and how it might develop in the near to mid term. Iran "won" the games at least in part because it had a strong hand, coherent strategy, clear goals, and determined leadership. In contrast, it faced an array of opponents who were divided on objectives and strategies and who exhibited uncertain, if not vacillating, leadership. Among these opponents, only Israel was willing to use military force, while the United States appeared to play its hand weakly in all three simulations.

The thing that I noticed most was that only one of theses actually involved “war” and even there the U.S. only acted in a limited way. In essence their conclusions were the same as mine, only decisive forceful action will change the reality on the ground.

First, the United States must "play" differently in the coming months than the participants who represented it in these simulations. Current U.S. policy seemed to fail in each game, leaving the situation worse in several dimensions: Iran was undeterred (even strengthened), relations with Israel were in crisis, and international support was lacking. Accordingly, the United States and others must conceive and develop new, more robust initiatives (e.g., strong support for regime change).

Second, the United States must plan for military action, either by itself, with others, or in the wake of unilateral Israeli strikes.


Third, the results of these games are likely disturbing for Israel, indicating that its leaders should prepare both diplomatically and militarily to go it alone. A decision to strike could be the most fateful since the state's founding. Israel needs to ready its military not just for a raid or operation, but also for an extended war on multiple fronts and deep within the homeland.

In other words, there are no good solutions.

HT: GrEaT sAtAn’S gIrLfRiEnD who had some doubts about the validity of the games and the participants.

1 comment:

G'Willie said...

I had to delete a little spam...